Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 314: Outbreak of the American Civil War

Since entering the era of ironclad ships, the Austrian Navy has been making significant strides. The continuous expansion of the Austrian Navy has forced European countries to follow suit.

If it werent for the Indian rebellion diverting the Britishs attention, the Austrian government would have long felt the pressure.

There were even people in the British government clamoring for the three-power standard (exceeding the combined tonnage of the worlds second, third, and fourth-largest navies).

Of course, these figures were all talk without any real action on the part of the British. They had never achieved such standards before.

Now, not to mention the three-power standard, Franz doubted that the British could even meet the two-power standard.

The combined tonnage of the French and Austrian navies has already approached that of the Royal Navy. Taking the ironclad ships into consideration, the Royal Navys strength was no longer capable of maintaining a dominant advantage over France and Austria.

Once the Indian rebellion is suppressed, however, the British should be able to achieve a two-power standard for a considerable time. Franz was not prepared to massively expand naval spending in the short term, lest he provoke the British.

Or rather, he had already provoked them, but they currently do not have the time to address it.

If not for insufficient finances plaguing the Russian government, Franz would have aided Russian naval expansion efforts to provoke Britain even more.

There was no contradiction here. Provoking the British would encourage them to devote more resources to ironclads. In reality, these warships were only transitional products. The more that were built, the greater the losses when newer models appeared.

If it werent for intervening in the American Civil War, Franz wouldnt have built so many ironclad ships. Considering the performance of these warships, they will soon be obsolete.

It was precisely because of the possibility of an arms race leading to war that Franz didnt want to stand out for the time being. Since Britain and Russia were the ones competing for hegemony, of course, the Russians had to take the lead.

Before the unification of Germany, Franz wasnt willing to confront the British directly; it would be more trouble than it was worth.

Washington

The pivotal elections that would decide Americas fate had concluded. Franzs butterfly effect did not influence this election. Republican Abraham Lincoln was elected as the 16th President of the United States by an absolute majority.

The emergence of a representative for the interests of Northern capitalists had caused panic and resentment among Southern plantation owners. To protect their interests, they began to form alliances.

On December 20, 1860, representatives of Southern plantation owners convened a meeting in South Carolina and decided to secede from the Union.

They also issued a declaration supporting slavery and welcomed states to secede from the Union and join the newly formed nation the Confederate States of America.

The news caused a sensation in Europe. Franz immediately convened a cabinet meeting to discuss countermeasures.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg analyzed: The conflict between North and South in the United States has been going on for a long time. The result of this election has shown that the Southern plantation owners have completely failed in the political struggle.

To protect their own interests, they had to secede from the Union and form a new country. Legally speaking, these states have the right to secede from the United States.

But the Northern capitalists would certainly not agree to that. They still want access to cheap industrial raw materials and markets in the South. If these states seceded, all their previous efforts would be for naught.

Unless the Northern government compromises, the Southern plantation owners will not return. Lincolns appeal is all for show. This division between North and South is not just about the abolition of slavery, but also about core issues like tariffs, which he doesnt even mention.

If Lincoln had promised to reduce tariffs on agricultural products, the Southern plantation owners determination to be independent may have wavered. Right now, both sides can only resort to war.

With the outbreak of the American Civil War, our strategy for the Americas was already half-realized, as a divided America suits our interests more. However, there is a significant gap in the comprehensive strength between North and South. With only seven states currently joining the Southern government, they may not be a match for the Northern government.

Splitting up America Austria was absolutely supportive. Especially after unveiling the colonization strategy for the Americas, this became even more necessary.

Minister of the Interior Windsch-Grtz calmly remarked: On the surface, the Northern government does appear to be stronger. But in reality, not all northern states are willing participants in this war.

Most Americans do not wish for war to erupt. Mobilizing citizens to the frontlines relied on capitalist-controlled media outlets manipulating the masses.

Its different for the Southern states; they have been pushed to a dead end. When it comes to their own interests, the enthusiasm of the Southern people to enlist is much higher.

In the short term, there is a greater likelihood that the Southern government will have the military advantage. If the war drags on, then the Northern manpower advantage will gradually translate into military strength.

I believe that as long as the Southern commanders are clever, they can take Washington as soon as the war breaks out and then negotiate with the Northern government.

After all, everyone does enjoy seeing upstarts meet their downfall. European countries would absolutely support Americas division.

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Prime Minister Felix questioned: That would be very difficult to accomplish. Militarily, it is indeed possible for the Southern forces to seize Washington initially. However, they have no way of preventing the US government from evacuating.

Clearly, there are more states leaning towards the North. Southern military actions might instead stimulate neutral states to band together against them.

The Southern government is limited in strength; they cannot conquer several states without becoming exhausted. The Northern government, on the other hand, with its strong capabilities, will ultimately overpower the South.

The crux now was not how North and South would duke it out, but which side could rally more allies.

The United States has a total of 35 states, 16 of which are slave states. Currently, only seven have declared independence. The subsequent political activities of both sides will determine the outcome of this war.

If the Southern government can persuade all 16 slave states to join them in independence and sway several neutral states, then the balance of power between the two sides will narrow.

If the strengths of both sides are evenly matched, with the intervention of European countries, there will be no chance to peacefully resolve this issue.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg explained: Prime Minister, the ideal scenario will likely not happen. The diplomatic efforts of the Southern government are simply inadequate. I dont know where they derive their confidence from, as they have not sought our assistance thus far.

Im not optimistic about how many states they can persuade to join them. With public opinion dominated by Northern capitalists, even many of the agrarian states may side with the federal government if Confederate diplomacy proves inadequate.

After all, some slave states also have quite strong capitalist presences. If the response is slow, states that were initially inclined towards them may also be swayed by the Northern government.

What is the source of confidence for the Southern government? Of course, its cotton!

In this era, about one-fifth of Britains population directly or indirectly depends on cotton textiles for survival, with 80% relying on supplies from several Southern states.

The British government would never tolerate disruptions in the cotton supply chain, but unfortunately, they overlooked the abundant cotton harvest of 1860, which led to cotton piling up 50% above normal levels in London commodity markets.

This small oversight proved exceedingly fatal. Many capitalists treated northern blockades as opportunities to clear excess stocks and profit immensely.

With these individuals hindering them and without immediately fatal impacts on the textile industry, the British government found itself embroiled in controversy and did not immediately intervene in the American Civil War.

Subsequently, after finally reaching agreements with France and Spain to intervene, they faced another obstacle when the French turned their backs on the agreement. Coupled with the Northern governments public relations efforts, the British government once again found itself hesitant.

After several hesitations, cotton from India and Egypt had been cultivated. The interest of British capitalists in cotton from the Southern government declined significantly, and international intervention was thus delayed.

By the time the British government made a decision, the Southern government was already beyond salvation.

Faced with such diplomatic incompetence on the part of the Southerners in the face of their clear advantages, Franz was also deeply troubled. They did not know how to capitalize on the strengths they had been handed on a silver platter, completely ruining their chances.

If only the Confederacy were more proactive, whether out of strategic necessity or for their interests, they would have garnered support.

Nevertheless, to undermine the Americans, Franz could only pinch his nose and provide voluntary aid to the Confederacy.

The Foreign Ministry should communicate with Britain and France in working together to persuade more agricultural states to join the Confederacy. Surely they would not mind sabotaging the Americans.

Additionally, feed intel to some newspapers on bumper cotton harvest and sales stagnations. Also highlight exploding cotton outputs in places like India, Egypt, and West Africa.

Get a few experts and scholars to analyze the severity of the situation, to enlighten the Southern government leaders about the unreliability of their weapon cotton.

In addition to cotton, many other American agricultural commodities served as powerful trade weapons even though other regions could produce them as well.

Franz even entertained notions of hiring saboteurs to set Britains cotton stockpiles ablaze before discarding the idea. Mainly because there were simply too many warehouses for a handful of people to completely incinerate.

Currently, most of the Southern cotton hasnt been shipped out yet. As long as the Southern government remains vigilant and suspends further cotton shipments, the British government will have no choice but to rely on the Southern government.

After all, whether in India or Egypt, growing cotton still takes time. Domestic factories could hardly afford delays.

Historically, there were proposals within the Northern government to intercept these cotton shipments in the early stages of the war to cut off the Southern governments trade.

However, to avoid offending the British, the Lincoln administration chose to let the shipments pass. Even during the Civil War, the Northern blockade of cotton shipments was not very tight.

Otherwise, if John Bulls cotton supply was truly cut off, the British would have already invaded.

Theres no need to doubt it. Though the British Army may not be anything special, its still adequate to deal with Americans. With the Royal Navy blockading the American coast and a bunch of Indian soldiers sent over, they could easily overwhelm the Northern government.

As for logistics, its not as daunting as one might think. The most crucial supplies, like food, can be provided by the Southern government, so theres no shortage there.

The only things that need to be transported from the mainland are weapons and ammunition, and the ammunition consumption in this era of warfare isnt that significant. As the worlds largest industrial power, the British can easily afford it.

Frankly speaking, the Northern government only consists of around twenty million people. Once the war breaks out, they will quickly lose several states to the South. The war potential that the Northern government could muster would now be limited.

Just the force the British used to suppress the Indian rebellion would be enough to change the outcome of the Civil War. The American troops, who barely got their hands on rifles before being sent to the battlefield, essentially have no combat capability.

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