Holy Roman Empire

It proved true that the best strategy is the one most suited to one’s own circumstances.

Marshal Ivanov’s tactics were completely by the book: fortifying strongholds and engaging in slow, methodical battles, offering virtually no highlights. He would rather let opportunities slip away than take military risks.

Faced with such a cautious opponent, even Prussia’s so-called “God of War,” Moltke, was powerless to find a solution.

The situation at the front did not follow the expected script, and the Prussian government came under increasing pressure, with criticism surfacing from various sectors of society.

Some old-school generals even publicly criticized Moltke’s commanding abilities, demanding that he take responsibility for the failure at Smolensk, as if replacing the commander would suddenly allow the Prussian army to turn the tide.

Fortunately, Wilhelm I was not easily swayed by public opinion and steadfastly supported Marshal Moltke. Otherwise, the Prussian army might have already changed its leadership.

From a purely tactical standpoint, the Prussian army had far more victories than defeats, with an impressive record overall.

The unfortunate reality, however, was that these victories came at a steep cost in casualties. The war potential of Prussia and Russia was vastly different, with the Russian government able to absorb troop losses at three times the rate of the Prussian government.

The Prussian-Polish Federation might appear to have a population of 30 million, but its true fighting strength lay in the army composed of citizens from Prussia’s core regions.

Although the Polish population supported the war, the ethnic makeup of the region was highly diverse, with numerous minority groups and internal conflicts that rivaled the external ones.

Integrating a dual monarchy is no easy feat. The Prussian-Polish Federation was established too recently for the Prussian government to resolve internal conflicts, let alone unify language and script.

Issues that the government failed to address inevitably seeped into the military. Much like the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the original timeline, such a structure severely tested command and coordination capabilities.

When a single unit fought alone, its combat effectiveness was rated at 10. However, when two units fought together, their combined combat strength wasn’t 20 but dropped to 16.2 (calculated as 20 × 0.9 × 0.9). With three units, the effectiveness fell to 21.87, and as more units coordinated, the combined combat effectiveness decreased even further.

For Moltke, leading these “uncooperative allies” into battle and achieving the current results was already quite remarkable. Replacing him would likely have resulted in complete disaster.

At the Berlin Palace, a meeting that could determine the future of the Prussian-Polish Federation was taking place.

“Should we expand the army? Or should we not?”

Since the outbreak of war, the Prussian-Polish Federation had been continually expanding its forces, increasing its total troops from an initial 416,000 to the current 1.668 million.

This discussion about expansion was not the usual monthly troop reinforcements of hundreds of thousands of soldiers but rather a decision on whether to initiate “maximum mobilization” immediately.

There was no other choice. In a war of this magnitude, manpower was always in short supply.

However, not all troops could be deployed to the front lines immediately. Most of the newly recruited soldiers were raw recruits who required basic military training before becoming battle-ready.

Even after training is completed, it doesn’t mean that all these soldiers can be sent to the front lines. Logistics require maintenance, coastal areas need to be defended, and the incursions of Cossack cavalry need some forces to be assigned to deal with them.

Additionally, a significant proportion of the troops are replacement soldiers, who will gradually be assigned to severely depleted units to maintain the combat effectiveness of the main forces.

Out of the Prussian-Polish Federation’s 1.668 million soldiers, only about half can realistically be deployed to the front lines. This ratio is already exceptionally high and is a testament to the Prussian government’s organizational capabilities.

With insufficient manpower, it’s naturally easy to suffer on the battlefield. While Ivanov’s command style is conservative, he does not lack the ruthlessness of sacrificing countless lives for one general’s success, relentlessly playing a game of attrition.

Behind the war of attrition lies the Russian Empire’s total military strength, soon to surpass the three million mark. Even if Russian forces are at a disadvantage in terms of the exchange ratio on the battlefield, their sheer numerical advantage still grants them a strategic upper hand.

…

Moltke stated, “I oppose maximum mobilization at this time. War is not won by sheer numbers, and in a contest of manpower, we can never match the Russians.

The unfavorable situation on the battlefield is only temporary. While the Russians seem to have the upper hand, the political pressure Ivanov faces behind the scenes continues to increase.

Victory is the easiest way to lose clarity. With Ivanov’s current tactics, even if the Russians win this war, they will be severely weakened. After paying the price of millions of casualties, they’ll end up with barren land and massive debts to repay.

As far as I know, the Russian government has mortgaged Russian-controlled Balkan territories and most of Ukraine to Austria. Given the current state of the Russian Empire, if they don’t want to cede these regions to Austria, they will have to find a way to repay their debts.

Ivanov’s strategy may seem prudent, but in reality, he’s working for the Austrians. After the war, if the Russian government is unable to repay its debts, they will inevitably have to cede large amounts of territory as compensation. I don’t believe the Russian government can accept that.

If we can secure a few more victories, making it appear that the outcome is certain, the Russian government will either pressure Ivanov to engage us in a decisive battle or replace him altogether.”

The government advocates for expansion, yet the military’s top leader opposes it. Such a bizarre situation is rare in world history, but it is now happening.

Moltke is well aware that his decision will upset many military officers since an expansion is the best opportunity for promotions.

However, there was no other choice. This war had become incredibly intense, with the Prussian army suffering monthly casualties ranging from tens of thousands to over a hundred thousand.

While maximum mobilization seemed to address the issue of insufficient manpower, it was not a real solution. The manpower of the Prussian-Polish Federation was limited, and maximum mobilization would only deplete their ability to mobilize in the future.

The original strategy was to lure the enemy deeper. If a massive army were mobilized and kept idle, how could the Russian government possibly lower its guard?

If they remained vigilant and allowed Ivanov to continue commanding, the war would devolve into a prolonged war of attrition. In such a scenario, the Prussian-Polish Federation would ultimately be the first to collapse.

Moreover, newly formed units would not develop combat effectiveness in the short term. Initiating a decisive battle would still be impossible, and the additional troops would do little to change the course of the war apart from increasing consumption.

Foreign Minister Geoffrey Friedman replied, “Marshal, I admit that you make valid points, but let us not forget the influence of international forces. Our negotiations with the British government have achieved significant progress. Diplomatically, they have already intervened, and the threat from the Nordic Federation no longer exists.

If we mobilize three million troops, the Russian government will have to undertake even greater mobilization efforts to maintain its numerical superiority. How many troops would they need to mobilize? Five million, or even six million?

Armies are gold-devouring beasts. We have financial support from Britain and France, allowing us to sustain this for another year. How long can the Russian government hold out? I don’t believe Austria will provide Russia with unlimited support. They’ve already invested heavily and must consider recouping their costs.

We’ve already extended goodwill to the Austrian government, offering significant concessions like renouncing any claim to the territories Russia has mortgaged to them and supporting their acquisition of Constantinople.

While these may not entirely sway Austria, it’s enough to keep them neutral. If the Austrian government wavers, the Russian government will face a financial crisis, making it impossible to maintain their numerical superiority.

Without a manpower advantage, I trust that you, Marshal, will have no shortage of strategies to defeat them. This approach carries far less risk than waiting for the enemy to make a mistake.”

Beneath the seemingly calm surface lay a power struggle. If the government’s proposal to expand the army and use financial pressure to wear down the Russians succeeded, the leadership of the war would shift from the military to the government.

Upon closer analysis, one could detect the shadow of the British behind this. The sudden intervention by the British government provided the Prussian government with an opportunity to wrest control of the war.

Moltke roared, “Madness! Geoffrey, you’re a complete madman! To place our hopes in the British, do you really believe they will continue supporting us indefinitely? Appease Austria? My God! Geoffrey, you truly dare to dream!

To meddle in the Anglo-Austrian rivalry and still hope to manipulate them in the palm of your hand. Do you think our troubles aren’t big enough already?”

Moltke’s pessimism was not without reason, Geoffrey’s plan was overly idealistic. Everything depended on Britain and Austria following their script.

If the British stopped providing loans or if the Anglo-Austrian rivalry led the Austrian government to continue financing the Russian government, it would spell disaster for the Prussian-Polish Federation.

Countries differ from one another, and the financial power of Britain and Austria is far beyond that of Prussia and Russia. If the stakes are high enough, spending a few hundred million on a proxy war isn’t out of the question.

Geoffrey Friedman smirked coldly and said, “Marshal, you’re overthinking this. The risks aren’t as great as you imagine. If you knew how much we owe the British, you’d understand why the British government supports us.

The principal alone amounts to 210 million pounds, and that’s just loans and bonds. We also owe British businesses 140 million pounds for goods, and this number is increasing by 600,000 pounds every day.

When you factor in interest, we owe the British nearly 600 million pounds. If the creditors don’t want to lose their investment, they’ll ensure that the British government continues to back us.”

This explanation left Moltke dumbfounded. He had never imagined that the Prussian government could accumulate such an astronomical debt, nor that owing money could be such a strategic advantage.

Of course, the benefits were only temporary. When it came time to repay the debt, they would be the ones crying.

After pausing to collect himself, Moltke asked, “And what about Austria? Don’t tell me we owe them massive debts as well.”

Geoffrey Friedman smiled faintly and replied, “Of course not. Austrian bankers have no confidence in us. They’ve lent their money to the Russians instead. While we have no debt ties with them, we can negotiate through an exchange of interests. In international politics, enemies and friends can shift as long as the interests are sufficient.”

Geoffrey Friedman’s confidence failed to impress Moltke this time. He merely shook his head and said, “Sir Geoffrey, it’s time to wake up from your dream. In theory, after we withdraw from the German Federal Empire, we could indeed strike a deal with Austria.

We could support their annexation of the Federal Empire in exchange for their neutrality in this war. But do you really think we have a choice? Would the British agree? Would the French agree?”

This is the consequence of excessive debt. British money doesn’t come without strings attached. While there are countries that take the money without fulfilling obligations, the Prussian-Polish Federation is not one of them.

The British government’s current willingness to support the Federation isn’t just about countering the Russians, it’s also about limiting Austria and obstructing German unification.

If the British were to discover that the Prussian government was considering a compromise with Austria on this issue, John Bull would undoubtedly explode with rage.

The Federation’s reserve funds are all held in London, and the British government could render the Prussian mark worthless at any time. The Prussian government has no choice in the matter.

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