Holy Roman Empire

No matter how many schemes are devised, war is ultimately decided on the battlefield. As the diplomatic game between Prussia and Russia continues, the battle for Lithuania commenced.

At this point, Moltke has found himself in an awkward position. Whether or not to engage in a decisive battle with the enemy in the Lithuanian region has become a perplexing question.

Russia’s navy, having stagnated for over a decade, is far behind the times. However, even their outdated fleet is far superior to the miniature navy of the Prussian-Polish Federation.

Times have changed. Both sides have prepared extensively for this war. The Russian government has stockpiled massive amounts of strategic resources in Saint Petersburg, enough to sustain a campaign for over a year.

Against this backdrop, naval superiority can be fully leveraged. Ivanov’s initiation of the Lithuanian campaign is aimed at exploiting these advantages.

Having lost control of the seas, moving to the Baltic coast to engage in a decisive battle with the enemy, especially when the enemy is prepared, would be sheer madness, Moltke reasoned.

The problem, however, is that war does not cease simply because one wishes it to. The Russians have already launched their offensive. Unless Lithuania, Latvia, and other regions are abandoned, there is no choice but to confront the situation head-on.

Abandoning them is out of the question. If Lithuania falls, the flames of war will once again spread to East Prussia. The gains from the first Russo-Prussian War would then be completely lost.

If it were a different opponent, Moltke might dare to take a gamble and look for an opportunity to defeat the enemy. Unfortunately, his adversary is Ivanov, known for his conservatism, which renders such strategies ineffective.

“Marshal, how about we launch an offensive from Belarus, feigning an attack on Smolensk to force the enemy to abandon their Lithuanian campaign plans?” a middle-aged officer proposed.

Europe doesn’t have a historical reference like the Chinese strategy of “Besieging Wei to Rescue Zhao,” but similar military templates are not uncommon.

Moltke shook his head and replied, “It won’t work. The enemy has deployed thirty infantry divisions and two cavalry divisions in Belarus. We simply have no chance.”

In a field battle, Moltke was confident he could crush this enemy force. But that was impossible. Given Ivanov’s cautious style, the Russian forces would undoubtedly choose to hold their ground stubbornly.

If they really pushed forward, regardless of whether there was enough time, Moltke’s precious mobile forces would be nearly exhausted. And without troops, what good is holding territory?

Staring at the map, which marked the deployment of Russian forces, Moltke sighed deeply. Since the outbreak of the Second Russo-Prussian War, the Prussian army had been fighting under immense constraints.

It wasn’t for lack of effort. The problem was that there was no room to maneuver. While the Prussian army’s combat strength was slightly superior, the gap was limited, and the Russians could make up for it with sheer numbers.

After a moment's hesitation, Moltke pointed to the map and ordered, “Instruct the northern forces to abandon Latvia and retreat to Lithuania.”

Winning at the start doesn’t mean victory as the final winner will be the true victor. Moltke had already steeled himself for another major battle in East Prussia. Heavy losses didn’t matter, what mattered most was achieving ultimate victory.

…

On the battlefield, Prussia and Russia were locked in a battle of wits and courage. Diplomatically, the two nations were also engaged in a smoke-filled contest. Vienna once again became the arena of their confrontation, with Austria’s Foreign Ministry bustling with activity, and Schönbrunn Palace abuzz with intrigue.

To avoid the chaos, Franz had closed his doors to visitors. With so many envoys and lobbyists, even the emperor was troubled. The best solution was simply not to meet anyone.

Franz once again realized the downside of having so many relatives. It wasn’t that they were unruly, meddling, or openly disruptive. Ironically, that would have been easier to deal with.

There are few fools among nobles who manage to rise to prominence. Acting as intermediaries requires skill, and most of them merely conveyed messages or hinted at their positions subtly.

Some hoped for a Russian victory, others favored a win for the Prussian-Polish Federation, while others simply wanted to probe Franz’s stance and gauge the direction of government policy.

This was an unavoidable reality. Determining a nation’s direction has never been solely the emperor’s prerogative. Domestic interest groups, large and small, are all involved.

This is part of Europe’s political game. For instance, if Franz wanted to advance a particular bill or resolution, it wasn’t enough for him to simply want it. He would often use these channels to release information and test external reactions.

Alternatively, he might hint for these figures to submit proposals to the government, effectively turning them into his imperial mouthpieces, sparing the emperor from personally engaging in the political wrangling.

The Russo-Prussian War had far-reaching implications, touching on the future balance of power on the European continent, the process of unifying the German states, and significant political and economic interests.

The greater the stakes, the more interest groups it involved, and the more people became concerned.

Franz didn’t want to state his position prematurely, so he avoided doing so. While the emperor could evade the matter, the senior officials of the government could not. Prime Minister Felix’s hairline had receded noticeably further.

…

At the Prime Minister’s residence in Vienna, the Prussian-Polish Federation’s ambassador, Friedmann, spoke passionately, “World peace is facing serious challenges, and the international order in Europe is being disrupted by—”

Felix frowned and interrupted impatiently, “Ambassador, let’s skip these empty platitudes. Our time is valuable, and there’s no need to waste it.”

His impatience was on full display, and it was clear that Felix was genuinely annoyed, unwilling even to entertain diplomatic niceties.

Friedmann, however, was unperturbed. This wasn’t the first or second time he had encountered such behavior. As a seasoned diplomat, he knew how to keep his emotions in check and not let personal feelings interfere with his work.

“Prime Minister, a powerful Russian Empire is not in the best interest of Europe, or even the world. Your nation’s interests—”

Before Friedmann could finish, Felix interrupted him again, “It’s not just the Russian Empire. A powerful Prussian-Polish Federation is equally detrimental to us. You must understand that rule-breakers are often the most despised.”

As a staunch proponent of Greater Germanism, Felix naturally harbored no goodwill toward entities that fragmented the nation. In the eyes of German nationalists, the existence of the Prussian-Polish Federation was nothing short of a malignant tumor.

Felix, as Austria’s champion of Greater Germanism, was inherently anti-Prussia and had no obligation to show deference.

However, in politics, anything is possible. As long as the benefits are sufficient, nothing is off the table.

“Rule-breakers”—what a joke. No one is truly more principled than the other. If Austria had followed all the rules, it wouldn’t have built the empire it has today.

However, the Austrian government, as a rule-maker, had long ago left itself a backdoor, giving the appearance of being less shameless in its conduct.

Friedmann felt slightly embarrassed but quickly recovered as a flash of insight crossed his mind. Internally, he was already cursing, realizing he had nearly fallen into a trap.

After all, this was a diplomatic meeting, and Felix’s hostile attitude was, in itself, a diplomatic tactic.

After this brief episode, Friedmann decided to cut to the chase. He didn’t want to risk his patience or his heart giving out.

“Prime Minister, we are offering this with great sincerity. As long as your country ceases its support for the Russians, Ukraine and the Russian-controlled Balkans will be yours after the war.”

When the discussion turned to tangible benefits, Felix’s attitude softened slightly. Feigning confusion, he asked, “Sincerity? Where exactly is the sincerity? I must have missed it. Using Russian territory as a token of sincerity, and then expecting us to send troops to seize it, your nation’s version of sincerity is truly astonishing!”

The offer appeared tempting on the surface. Austria would gain Ukraine and the Russian-controlled Balkans with Prussian-Polish Federation support, seemingly at no cost. But in reality, it was fraught with hidden dangers.

The two Russo-Prussian wars had already made the Prussian government fully aware that the Russian Empire was like an unkillable cockroach. Even if they won this war, it wouldn’t be long before Russia resurged.

If this cycle repeated endlessly, they would achieve nothing in the long term. To secure a stable international environment for development, someone else would need to share the burden of containing Russia.

The ideal ally would have been the Ottoman Empire, but unfortunately, they were hopelessly ineffective and utterly unreliable.

Next in line was the Nordic Federation, but regrettably, they had irreparably offended the Danes. With the Danes sabotaging them at every turn, there was no chance of an alliance between the Nordic Federation and Prussia.

Then there were the Central Asian states and the Far Eastern Empire, but they were just as useless as the Ottomans. Even if they could be drawn in, their impact would be negligible.

Austria had not originally been considered a potential ally by the Prussian government. However, the situation forced their hand. To win the war, they had to persuade the Austrian government to abandon its support for the Russians.

Even after being exposed, Friedmann remained unfazed, continuing with a cheerful demeanor, “Prime Minister, that’s not entirely fair. We’ve already dealt a significant blow to the Russian Empire in this war. For your country to occupy those territories would be no more than an armed parade. If your country so desires, you could even take the Volga region as well. We would fully support you.”

Felix shook his head. A glance at the map was enough to show what the “Volga region” entailed. Was that even within Austria’s reach?

“We don’t have the appetite your country does. Russo-Austrian friendship has deep historical roots, and we have no interest in the Russian Empire’s territory.”

This was spoken in earnest. Felix truly had no interest in Russian territory, nor did the Austrian government harbor any ambitions toward it.

Of course, if the Russians decided they didn’t want it anymore and insisted on giving it away, Austria wouldn’t refuse the gesture.

After a moment of hesitation, as if he had undergone an intense internal struggle, Friedmann slowly said, “What if we include the German Federal Empire? As long as your country ceases its support for the Russians, we will no longer oppose your annexation of the German Federal Empire.”

The implication was clear to Felix. “No longer oppose” essentially meant neither supporting nor obstructing, implicitly allowing Austria to absorb the German Federal Empire.

To be honest, Prime Minister Felix was tempted. However, he didn’t let it show. Given the current situation, this was likely the best concession the Prussian government could offer.

If it were the Russian government in a similar position, they might have gone a step further and openly expressed their support.

There was no doubting Alexander II’s determination to win the war. Any ambitious ruler knows how to endure temporary setbacks for greater long-term gains.

The same applied to the Prussian-Polish Federation. However, their deep entanglement with British influence prevented them from taking such bold steps.

“Ambassador, your proposal holds no value. If it were 1853, and your country had shown this level of sincerity, the matter would have been resolved long ago.

At this point, do you really think your stance still matters? As far as I know, your country hasn’t even fully recovered from the wounds of your last war.

After this war, how long will your country need to recuperate? Twenty years? Thirty years?

Even if we were to take action, what could you do about it? Would you dare take it to the battlefield and fight us?”

This wasn’t disdain, it was merely the harsh reality. Winning the war was only the beginning. For the Prussian-Polish Federation to regain its strength, it had a long road ahead.

They couldn’t possibly risk everything to interfere with Austria. With the precedent set by Colombia, no one could guarantee that the Austrian government wouldn’t change its mind, give them a beating, and then stop.

The value of a bargaining chip depends on the timing. Even something priceless can become worthless if presented at the wrong moment.

Friedmann’s expression changed slightly but quickly returned to normal as he said, “Prime Minister, that depends on your perspective. If these conditions aren’t enough to sway you, then what about the possibility of the Russians winning the war?

Looking across the globe, there aren’t many powers left that pose a serious threat to your country. The Russian Empire happens to be one of them.

It hasn’t been long since Alexander II’s reforms, and yet the Russians have already recovered from their last war. If they win this war and continue to develop, can your country truly feel at ease?

The Russian government’s greed for land knows no bounds. Just look at the map. You share an extensive border with the Russian Empire. Future conflicts are inevitable.

Rather than leaving such a threat unchecked, wouldn’t it be better to eliminate it now? Your country could also seize the opportunity to enter the Black Sea.

With your nation’s strength, turning the Black Sea into an inland sea would be just a matter of time, and no one could stop you.”

Friedmann had voiced the very concerns of the Austrian government. The potential for Russian development was immense, and with such vast territory, no one could predict what kind of power it might eventually produce.

In comparison, the threat posed by the Prussian-Polish Federation was much smaller. Even if they won the war, their national strength would limit how much territory they could absorb. To truly become a major power, they would need at least several decades of development.

And that’s under ideal circumstances. Austria had risen step by step, and the Austrian government understood better than anyone the challenges of ethnic integration.

It could be said that the more population the Prussian-Polish Federation seized from the Russian Empire, the more severe its internal ethnic issues would become.

Managing a dual monarchy wasn’t easy. A restless Polish populace was already a handful. Adding more ethnic groups would make them indistinguishable from the Austro-Hungarian Empire of the original timeline.

They might even be worse off than the Austro-Hungarian Empire. At least the Habsburg dynasty had spent centuries consolidating their rule, earning widespread loyalty, and leaving relatively few independence movements.

After a moment of silence, Felix shook his head and said, “Ambassador, you’re mistaken. Austria has always maintained neutrality and has never supported the Russians.

What you see is merely normal commercial trade. As a member of the free trade system, we do not interfere with the market.

If your country wishes to cut off the Russians’ supply lines, then buy the goods yourselves. If you purchase all the supplies, the Russians will naturally have nothing left to buy.”

Friedmann’s face darkened. He was acutely aware that Felix had been tempted earlier but ultimately refused, leaving no room for further negotiation.

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