Holy Roman Empire

Rejection was inevitable. No matter how enticing the conditions offered by the Prussian government were, at their core, they were nothing more than an attempt to gain something for nothing.

Moreover, the Russo-Prussian War wasn’t as straightforward as it appeared on the surface. It was also filled with the machinations of Britain, France, and Austria.

Initially, Britain and France supported the Prussian-Polish Federation, while Austria supported the Russian Empire. Now, the positions of Britain and Austria remained unchanged, but the French had grown passive.

It all came down to interests. If an opportunity arose to weaken a competitor, why not take it?

The French hadn’t invested much in this war. Even if the Prussian-Polish Federation were defeated, their losses would be minimal.

The economic setbacks could still be compensated for through other means.

For example, British companies struggling under debt might face operational difficulties or even bankruptcy.

Beyond the direct benefits of seeing their competitors weakened, simply watching the British suffer was enough to make the French rejoice.

As the French Empire grew increasingly powerful, the era of pro-British sentiment had come to an end. The growing conflicts of interest were driving the two countries further apart.

From France’s perspective, in the long run, a Russian victory in the war was more aligned with their strategic interests.

The spheres of influence of the two nations were far apart, and the likelihood of a direct conflict of interest was nearly zero. A strong Russian Empire could even serve to constrain Austria from behind.

No matter how good Austro-Russian relations might be, as soon as Russia became powerful, the two nations would inevitably diverge. National interests are not something that can be overridden by personal will.

By doing nothing, France could simultaneously weaken two competitors. Naturally, the French government knew which choice to make.

The British had their calculations, the French had theirs, and Austria was no exception.

A strong Russian Empire was indeed a potential threat, but it was in the far future, something to consider 20 to 30 years down the line.

In the short term, Austria’s greatest competitors were still Britain and France. If the Prussian-Polish Federation were defeated, a default on their debts would be inevitable, and the British economy would suffer significantly as a result.

The French economy wouldn’t fare much better. While their visible investment in the war appeared limited and their losses manageable, the French economy already had underlying issues.

During wartime, market demand thrives, and high industrial raw material costs aren’t a problem. However, once the Russo-Prussian War ended and those international orders vanished, the underlying issues would surface.

Coincidentally, this period would also mark the peak of global industrial overcapacity, with market competition at its fiercest. Cost would become one of the key factors in market competition.

With high costs, how could French industry and commerce compete with Britain and Austria for market share?

Capital is driven by profit, and the pursuit of gains would push it to flow from the unprofitable manufacturing sector into finance, thereby altering the economic structure of France.

This wasn’t the first time Austria had made such strategic moves. After nearly every economic crisis, the proportion of manufacturing in France’s economy declined.

Fortunately, during this era, no one truly recognized the critical importance of manufacturing. Otherwise, the French government would have been far more alarmed.

Of course, that moment of alarm wasn’t far off. In an era where the tertiary sector had yet to develop, it was still manufacturing that created the most jobs.

The contraction of industrial capacity would inevitably lead to declining employment rates. These displaced workers couldn’t all turn to farming, could they?

Farmland in France’s mainland had long been claimed. While there were plenty of overseas colonies, the real question was whether the French people were willing to go there. ŕàꞐőBЁꞩ

Regrettably, influenced by their maritime culture, the French preferred to stay in cities rather than venture to colonies for pioneering work.

This had already been proven, both in the original timeline and in the current one. French enthusiasm for emigration was consistently low.

When the economy faltered, people instinctively controlled birth rates. The invention of the condom also significantly contributed to France’s population control efforts.

With fewer births, the pressure naturally eased. After all, in this era, the life expectancy of the lower classes was short, so there was no need to worry about old-age care. Having or not having the next generation didn’t seem to matter much.

The decline in birth rates was a long-term issue, with its harmful effects not immediately apparent. However, the social crises brought about by economic difficulties were unavoidable.

It has only been less than ten years since the union of France and Italy. During periods of economic prosperity, many underlying tensions had been masked. But once an economic crisis erupted, those tensions would explode.

In a sense, this was also France’s most vulnerable moment. In just a few short years, the Italian populace had yet to fully integrate, and Napoleon IV’s rule remained fundamentally unstable.

If they were allowed to spend a few decades consolidating, developing a governance model that truly suited them, Greater France would become a bona fide “Mediterranean Empire,” presenting an even greater threat.

…

On the battlefield, the Prussian-Polish Federation was at a disadvantage. Diplomatically, they failed to convince Austria, and the French refused to increase their support. Under these circumstances, pressure on the Prussian government grew significantly heavier.

On October 12, 1880, the Prussian government initiated an expanded mobilization plan. All healthy men aged 16 to 50 were required to undergo militia training and be prepared for conscription at any time.

It was evident that the Prussian government was panicking and losing confidence in Moltke. Although they hadn’t yet undertaken maximum mobilization, they were already making related preparations.

“Maximum mobilization” puts a country’s organizational capabilities to a severe test. Not everyone is willing to go to the battlefield, and it requires substantial effort to convince people to fight.

This could work in a feudal era, where the area governed was limited, and a lord’s command would have all serfs picking up weapons to fight.

Alternatively, it could stem from intense humiliation and a surge of nationalism, motivating people to fight for their country.

Or it could arise from survival crises where weapons become a means of securing resources for existence.

The Prussian-Polish Federation didn’t meet any of these conditions, so their reliance had to be on governmental organizational capabilities. After all, war isn’t just about gathering people, it also involves military training and ensuring logistical support.

Vienna Palace

After putting down the intelligence report, Franz asked, “If the Prussian-Polish Federation undertakes maximum mobilization, what is the maximum number of troops they can muster?”

After a moment of contemplation, Chief of Staff Albrecht slowly replied, “Based on the data we’ve collected and analyzed, the Prussian-Polish Federation could mobilize up to six million people.”

Six million people doesn’t equate to six million troops. There’s a significant difference between people and soldiers as not everyone can become a qualified soldier.

The figure of “six million” merely excludes those with physical disabilities or illnesses, indicating that the Prussian-Polish Federation has six million men of eligible age.

However, it’s impossible to train all of them into a functional army. The reason is straightforward: many societal roles are essential and cannot be vacated.

Government agencies, hospitals, schools, military industries, research institutions…

Beyond these roles, there’s also a significant number of people from special classes. Not the nobility though as European nobles traditionally take pride in going to war, and noble honor wouldn’t allow them to retreat at such times.

The groups most unwilling to serve in the military are capitalists, the middle class, small business owners, experts and scholars… These individuals have wealth and social status, and they are reluctant to risk their lives on the battlefield.

If the Prussian government were to include them in mandatory service, domestic unrest would likely erupt.

After excluding all these groups, what remains is the true number of people the Prussian government could mobilize. Even then, they would still need to conduct a screening process to eliminate individuals unfit for military service.

The final number of troops would depend on the government’s screening standards. It could be three million or perhaps four million. Without undergoing maximum mobilization, no one can say for certain how many troops the Prussian-Polish Federation could raise.

That said, whether it’s three million or four million, the number would still shock the world.

The areas where Prussia and Russia are engaged in battle are also limited. Once the deployed forces reach a certain level, the battlefield’s capacity will hit its limit, making it impossible to continuously add more troops.

Once the battlefield’s capacity limit is reached, the Russian army will no longer be able to maintain its numerical advantage, and Ivanov’s conservative tactics will become much less effective.

Theoretically, as long as the Prussian army has three million troops and can deploy two million to the front lines, Moltke should be able to defeat the Russians.

Franz asked curiously, “What’s this? You don’t think the Prussian-Polish Federation’s maximum mobilization will be effective?”

The Chief of Staff, Albrecht, nodded and explained, “Even within the same country, not all military units have the same combat effectiveness. Once the Prussian-Polish Federation implements maximum mobilization, the combat effectiveness of the Prussian army will plummet.

There will be insufficient officers, poorly trained soldiers, and a decline in troop quality. All these factors combined will likely bring the Prussian army’s combat effectiveness down to the same level as the Russian army.

Tasks that elite units could handle easily will be impossible for ordinary units to accomplish. With a significant decline in troop effectiveness, commanders will need time to adapt and reorganize. But time is precisely what is most scarce on the battlefield.

The Russian government can currently match the Prussian-Polish Federation soldier for soldier, and it will still be able to do so in the future. They don’t even need to win battles. As long as they can inflict heavy casualties on the Prussian army, even losing battles can lead to an eventual victory in the war.

Unless Moltke can achieve an astonishing exchange ratio, the Prussian army will eventually be overwhelmed by the Russian army’s sheer numbers.

On this matter, I agree with Moltke that the Prussian army’s strength lies in its mobility. Blindly expanding the army would mean forfeiting this advantage.”

This serves as a warning to Austria as well. If they want to play the game of “human wave tactics,” then follow Russia’s example and focus on quantity over quality. Trying to balance both is just an illusory dream!

Perhaps Austria can prepare in advance for an army with 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 soldiers, including their officers. But once that number climbs to five or six million, or even tens of millions, the idea of pre-training for that scale is pure fantasy.

Training all active-duty soldiers to become officers? Nice idea, but reality doesn’t work that way. There are differences between individuals as not everyone can become a competent officer.

An excellent soldier doesn’t automatically make an excellent officer. Many people are only suited to remain soldiers.

Even with significant resources dedicated to training, the best they can achieve might be competence at the platoon or company level. After retiring and returning home, it wouldn’t take long before they revert to their old selves.

This dilemma didn’t trouble Franz for long. He found comfort in considering the plight of Austria’s rivals. Strengths and weaknesses are always relative. Austria doesn’t need to be the best, just better than its competitors.

Franz never intended to become a second Napoleon. Austria doesn’t need to fight all of Europe alone. When facing a single opponent, there’s no need for such a massive army.

After a brief consideration, Franz made a decision, “The Prussian-Polish Federation has yet to reach its limit and this war still has a long way to go. The plan to sell weapon technologies will be put on hold for now.”

Although the new weapons could make the war even more devastating, Franz wasn’t willing to risk releasing them recklessly. Austria’s goal is for Prussia and Russia to mutually exhaust each other, not to allow the Prussian-Polish Federation to turn the tide of war.

The effectiveness of the same weapons can vary greatly depending on whose hands they are in. Ivanov’s conservative strategy is proof of this. The leadership reflects its subordinates. When it comes to using advanced weapons, the Russian army would certainly lag behind the Prussian army.

Whether it’s the “machine gun” or the “mortar,” these seemingly modest weapons can unleash astonishing destructive power. If Moltke were to find an opportunity, he might even manage to turn the tide in a major battle.

The Russians have deep reserves, and losing a battle at the front isn’t frightening. What’s truly alarming is the prospect of a failed war leading to a shake-up in the Tsar’s command.

Don’t underestimate Marshal Ivanov. Though he lacks notable brilliance, he is still the most suitable commander for the Russian army. If he were replaced, there’s no telling what kind of chaos might ensue.

It’s not that Franz looks down on the Russians, but the overall quality of their officers is slightly inferior, particularly in terms of education.

Senior officers are better off, as most of them have received formal education. However, many mid and lower-level officers have only undergone informal family military training, with a relatively low proportion having attended military academies.

Otherwise, someone like Yadrin, an Austrian military academy graduate, couldn’t have risen to the rank of general so quickly, smoothly climbing the ranks within just a few years. (Previously mentioned as the commander of Kovel’s garrison).

It’s not that “foreign monks chant better sutras,” but in comparison to others, his abilities are indeed outstanding, at least in terms of theoretical knowledge.

When employing conservative tactics, which mostly involve straightforward battles, there is limited room for officers to demonstrate individual capability, so this disadvantage isn’t as evident.

But if a new commander were to change the operational model and require front-line officers to exercise greater personal command, the Russians would face significant challenges.

Perhaps some brilliant commanders would emerge, but there would undoubtedly be many more fools.

In wars involving millions of soldiers, the power of individuals is negligible. Victory or defeat in such conflicts is often determined not by the rare geniuses but by the countless fools.

After all, without fools to serve as a contrast, how would geniuses stand out? The miracles of military history are often the result of these two types of people working in tandem.

…

Foreign Minister Wessenberg stated, “Your Majesty, yesterday during my meeting with the British ambassador, he brought a message.

As long as we stop supporting the Russians, the British government will recognize our postwar annexation of the Russian-controlled Balkans, including Constantinople.”

Franz rolled his eyes. What kind of offer is this? Does Austria even need Britain’s recognition to annex the Russian-controlled Balkans?

It wasn’t arrogance. Since the opening of the Suez Canal, British influence in the Mediterranean had been in decline. The Balkans were far beyond their sphere of control.

If Austria truly intended to annex these regions, the only real obstacle would be the Russians. Whether the British recognize it or not has no bearing on the outcome.

If it were France making this offer, it would make more sense since they at least have the capacity to intervene. As for Britain, let’s wait until the main force of the Royal Navy dares to enter the Adriatic Sea.

Still, this does indirectly prove that the British government is getting desperate. The French, in whom they had placed high hopes, are now watching indifferently, leaving Britain short on bargaining chips.

Franz asked, “And Ukraine isn’t included?”

“No!” Wessenberg replied.

Franz shook his head and then said, “It seems the British government’s mindset is still stuck thirty years in the past, trying to meddle everywhere. Tell the British that Austro-Russian relations have a long history, and we have no interest in Constantinople. Advise them to stop sowing discord.”

Whether Austria is interested or not, it must currently appear uninterested. Taking Constantinople would mean committing to a death struggle with Russia, essentially sharing the burden of enmity with the Prussian-Polish Federation.

Austria already controls the Dardanelles, and Constantinople would be little more than the icing on the cake. Aside from Constantinople, what else is there in the Russian-controlled Balkans? Bulgaria?

It’s already 1880, not 1850. Bulgarian nationalism is in full bloom.

Culturally and socially, Bulgaria is very close to Russia. Their languages are mutually intelligible. If the Russian government hasn’t managed to assimilate them, Franz doesn’t believe Austria could do it any easier.

To put it bluntly, apart from rose oil, Bulgaria has little to offer that Austria doesn’t already have. The input simply doesn’t justify the output, making it hard to muster any real interest.

Visit and read more novel to help us update chapter quickly. Thank you so much!